Local councils in England have warned that debts linked to special educational needs and disability (SEND) provision could become "catastrophic" as demand for support accelerates, with forecasts suggesting liabilities could reach £10 billion in the near term.
The warnings follow a recent government intervention that cleared more than £5 billion of historic SEND debt held by local authorities. Council finance chiefs say a rapid rise in applications for education, health and care plans (EHCPs) has already pushed some authorities back towards that level of debt and could see the total re-accrued by April, with the figure potentially doubling by 2028.
Surge in EHCPs
Councils point to a sharp increase in EHCP requests as the primary driver of the mounting costs. EHCPs set out the provision required for children and young people with complex needs, and their growth has placed greater pressure on local education budgets and specialist placements. Authorities warn that, without additional resources, the increase in demand risks both public finances and the quality or availability of support for pupils with SEND.
Financial and service pressures
Officials say the new borrowing and budget pressure could force difficult trade-offs across local services. Higher SEND spending often comes at the expense of other council priorities, and sustained debt accumulation would limit councils' ability to manage demand pressures or invest in early intervention and mainstream support that can reduce long-term SEND costs.
Outlook and policy implications
The forecasts underline questions about the sustainability of current funding arrangements for SEND in England. Councils' warnings are likely to intensify pressure on central government to set out longer-term funding solutions or system reforms to manage demand and control costs, as local authorities grapple with the immediate financial consequences of rising EHCP applications.