With fewer than three weeks until the midterm elections, an exclusive Harris poll conducted for the Guardian shows growing discontent with the state of the US economy among several voter blocs that could prove decisive at the ballot box.
The survey found that nearly 61% of respondents believe the country is already in a recession, and roughly three-quarters said they are worried about a recession occurring. By the usual technical definition used by economists, the United States is not currently in a recession.
Independents appeared particularly pessimistic: 65% of those voters told pollsters they think the economy is worse now than it was previously. The poll also indicated rising unease among rural voters and a number of Republicans, groups that the incumbent party has historically relied on in midterm contests.
Analysts say public perceptions of economic health can influence turnout and voting decisions, making the timing of such views politically significant as campaigns enter their final stretch. The Harris poll, conducted exclusively for the Guardian, captures voter sentiment at a moment when economic messaging and local conditions are likely to feature heavily in campaign advertising and debates.
The poll’s findings add to a broader national conversation over wages, prices and financial stability, even as official indicators and technical definitions differ from popular perceptions. With the election looming, both parties are expected to press their own narratives about who is best equipped to manage the economy.