London’s bus network has seen a marked decline in passenger numbers in recent years, and transport experts warn the situation could worsen if services continue to slow. Research highlighted by Transport for London (TfL) indicates that a 10% reduction in bus speeds is associated with a 6% fall in demand, a relationship that critics say underlines the importance of keeping services reliable and fast.
Passenger journeys in London have fallen by more than 300 million a year — roughly a 16% decline since 2013 — even as the city’s population has grown by nearly one million people. The drop in use has prompted concern from analysts and campaigners who say dwindling bus speeds and decreasing reliability are prompting some commuters to abandon buses altogether.
London is not unique. Observers point to similar patterns emerging in other large cities, where longer dwell times, congestion and operational challenges have combined to slow public transport and erode user confidence. The trend has particular consequences for lower-income households, which are more likely to rely on buses for access to work, education and services.
Policy-makers face a choice between investing to restore speed and reliability or risking further passenger losses. TfL’s own citation of the link between speed and demand underscores the potential effectiveness of measures that prioritise bus lanes, traffic flow improvements and operational resilience — actions proponents say are necessary to prevent a continued decline in one of the city’s primary transport modes.