The UK is likely to experience a warmer and wetter-than-normal autumn as climatic changes linked to El Niño begin to take effect, the Met Office has forecast. Forecasters say the evolving Pacific warming pattern is expected to influence large-scale weather, increasing the chance of milder temperatures and above-average rainfall through the coming months.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It alters atmospheric circulation patterns around the globe and can shift the tracks and intensity of storms, with impacts that reach far beyond the Pacific basin.
How it could affect the UK
When El Niño conditions are present, the jet stream and the behaviour of Atlantic weather systems can be modified, which in some years has led to milder and wetter conditions across parts of the UK in autumn and winter. The Met Office’s outlook suggests these influences are likely this year, although the degree and regional distribution of changes in temperature and rainfall can vary.
Uncertainty and monitoring
Forecasters stress that seasonal outlooks describe probabilities rather than certainties. Local conditions will still depend on the interaction of El Niño with other climate drivers and short-term weather systems. The Met Office and other agencies will continue to monitor developments and update forecasts as the season approaches to give more detailed guidance on potential impacts such as increased flood risk or travel disruption.