Ed Miliband, the United Kingdom’s foreign secretary, has privately presented a classified intelligence assessment warning that the climate and nature crises and the coming El Niño pose a direct threat to national security and defence.
Speaking on Wednesday night during the UN general assembly in New York, Miliband briefed foreign ministers from the European Union, Kenya and other states, drawing on a report produced by Britain’s spy chiefs. The assessment — described by officials as explosive — concluded that the collapse of natural systems worldwide would increase the likelihood of conflict, drive migration and undermine food security.
The presentation centred on the heightened risks associated with an El Niño event, which the UK official framed as a critical pressure point for military and defence planning. The briefing was delivered at a private meeting and drew on material that, according to reports, had been suppressed domestically under Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The intelligence finding underscores growing concern among Western capitals that environmental and climate change impacts are not only humanitarian and economic challenges but also core security issues. The report’s authors warned that disruptions to ecosystems and food production could destabilise fragile states, strain defence resources and complicate international responses to migration flows.
British officials have emphasised the need for governments and defence establishments to factor climate and nature-related risks into strategic planning. The decision to share the assessment with foreign ministers at the UN meeting reflects efforts to broaden awareness of environmental drivers of insecurity, amid debate at home about the report’s previous suppression and how such intelligence should inform public policy and defence readiness.