A fresh YouGov MRP poll released on Monday indicates that Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament if a general election were held now, with the company’s central estimate putting Labour on 241 seats.
YouGov’s summary of its results notes that such an outcome would still represent a substantial net loss for Labour compared with the 2024 general election — a decline of 170 seats on that result — though the figure is an improvement on the firm’s MRP projection from the same time last year.
The poll also highlights the changing shape of the right-of-centre vote. YouGov described Reform UK as being “neck-and-neck” with the Conservative party in its model, signalling a competitive dynamic between the two parties rather than a clear Conservative recovery.
Polling firms and political strategists caution that MRP and other surveys are better at showing trends and the direction of public opinion than they are at predicting exact electoral outcomes. Campaigns and leaders often respond to polling both as a guide to public sentiment and as a factor that reshapes the political landscape — a leader who expects to win tends to act differently from one who expects to lose.
The release comes as regional and party events loom: Andy Burnham is preparing for his party conference next week, while Conservative frontbencher Kemi Badenoch is due to attend her party’s conference the following week. Parties and commentators will be watching the MRP results closely as they plan messaging and tactics ahead of those gatherings.